Writing Life

Wow, it’s finally here. I first blogged about Barack Obama back on February 7th, 2007! I threw my support behind him on March 30, 2007. And now, November 4th, 2008, the time has come to elect the 44th President of the United States of America. And when the polls close, it will be decisive for Barack Obama. I’m overwhelmed that a progressive and charismatic person will be our next President. Here’s a thread for the election today. Note for EV totals, it’s Obama first then McCain, so 7:10pm entry is 3 electoral votes for Obama and 8 for McCain.

• Amazing, it’s 12:54 AM and North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and Montana are still too close to call! F-ing A!
• Wow: 338-156 EV and 4 states still outstanding (Montana, North Carolina and two others)
• Obama talks of 106 year old lady voting who was born just a generation or so after slavery who got to vote today.
• 11:24: McCain concedes!
• 11:21: EV: 306 – 146!
• Oh, missed that AP called Florida for Obama. VA, OH, and FL all to Obama!
• MSNBC calls if for Obama. Our 44th President. OMG!
• AP calls VA for Obama. OMG OMG OMG OMG. Cry, scream, yell!
• Nebraska to McCain. 207-142. BTW, JesusLand stays alive in center of US.
• Iowa to Obama, Utah and Texas for McCain. Montana too close to call! Holy crap!. Obama 207 to McCain 129.
• 200 to 90, West Virginia goes to McCain.
• New Mexico called too for Obama
• Wow, MSNBC calls Ohio for Obama. This is freaking big! 200-85!
• Kweisi Mfume’s on WBAL (Baltimore’s NBC affiliate)’s presidential coverage. I love this man, even met him and talked with him about his Senate run in 2006 (in an official capacity). He’s an amazing man.
• [9:13pm] According to NBC, we have 175-76 for Obama!
• [7:10 pm] EV: 3-8: One website says KY went to McCain and Vermont to Obama.
• Silly tidbit: With today’s election, the curse of not electing a Senator president since 1960 will be gone.
• I’m up but haven’t voted yet (waiting for post rush-hour).

Yep, I sat through it like so many others. What a painful experience. Talking points passed off as debate, incoherence when monosyllabic replies wouldn’t suffice, the inability to look at the audience unless she was speaking, the condescending smirk whenever Biden spoke. You betcha, America, that’s the real Sarah Palin. There’s great coverage of her speech today: one in the Politico and another that’s a medley piece with video from the Huffington Post.

Palin’s sister was quoted in the Style section of yesterday’s Washington Post saying that the debate prep was like the ultimate college cram session before the “big test.” Palin’s performance lived up to that quote with its incoherence and the feeling that she just didn’t understand a lot of what she was talking about. That’s what cramming does, it gets facts in but not knowledge or understanding.

The LA Times is reporting that some Obama aides are suggesting a shorter Democratic Convention in August. They say that one shorter day will allow Obama’s bounce to begin earlier and maybe be stronger ahead of the Republican convention the following week. There’s something to be said for that, given that McCain might wait to announce his VP choice over that weekend to ramp up to the RNC convention and kill the Obama excitement.

However, there are two things going against such an argument. The first African American candidate nomination by a major political party in the US is going to be big news. It’s going to be hard to sidetrack that story.

Second, Obama is slated to accept the nomination on August 28th. The acceptance speech always closes out the convention. That will be the exact day of the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.’s I Have A Dream” speech. Do the Obama staffers, and the LA Times for that matter, have any clue as to the bounce he’ll get off of that? It will be in the stratosphere!

Today was supposed to be a day of hope and joy for supporters of positive change in Zimbabwe. A turning away from the past and looking toward the future. Sadly, that enthusiasm was crushed by President Mugabe and his thugs when they terrorized and killed supporters of the opposition candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai.

If there was any question as to the mockery of electoral politics in Zimbabwe, the AP reports that:

Paramilitary police and bands of ruling party militants patrolled Zimbabwe’s capital and marshals led voters to polling stations Friday for an internationally discredited presidential runoff held in an atmosphere of intimidation.

This evening, there probably will be an empty declaration of victory from Mugabe. How will the region react? The world? Will it write editorials and makes weak resolutions against the election only to be lulled into supporting this travesty once the media’s attention has turned elsewhere?

As I noted on Sunday, opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out of the presidential elections in Zimbabwe due to violence and intimidation of his party by the government and its thugs. He took refuge in the Dutch Embassy as the government rounded up about 60 men, women and children from the opposition party’s campaign headquarters. He may forgo this protection soon. President Mugabe has said Friday’s elections will go forward.

The UN, African Union, the US and others have said that there can’t be fair elections given the threats and violence perpetrated by the government. The UN Security Council went the furthest, while the African Union didn’t place the blame for the violence on anyone, even though Mugabe himself has bee whipping up his supporters for the attacks.

But what’s going to happen after Friday? If Mugabe “wins”, will he be recognized by other countries and international organizations? What if he’s not, will there be any concrete steps taken to force him to abdicate his office? Or, will Zimbabwe slowly rotate off the front burner and fade away in the media, and thus the public’s, eye?

Due to the violent intimidation of President Mugabe’s underlings and thugs, opposition party candidate Morgan Tsvangirai has pulled out of this Friday’s runoff election. Violence and threats of violence continued to come from Mugabe himself and his supporters in the run up to Friday. The Guardian has excellent coverage of this development and the entire election process in Zimbabwe.

While many Americans are caught up in the battle for U.S. President, the presidential race in Zimbabwe is drawing international scrutiny. Rhetoric from the ruling party fits more in the 19th century rather than the 21st. The first and only leader since Zimbabwe’s 1980 independence from Great Britain, Robert Mugabe has been rigging elections and threatening real and imagined opponents with violence for decades.

Elections in March saw Mugabe’s ruling party, the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), lose control of Parliament. Mugabe lost the presidential race to challenger Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Rampant voting irregularities and government secrecy hid the results of the presidential race for weeks and never were fully released. The question remains as to whether Tsvangirai won outright with 50% + 1 of the vote, avoiding a runoff. Regardless, the government decreed a runoff was necessary and scheduled it for June 27.

After a period of uncertainty, Mugabe said he’d vigorously compete in the runoff. Immediately, his police and paramilitary forces began harassing the MDC, including Tsvangirai. This included arrests, detainments, beatings, false charges of treason and arson, and so on. Supporters of the MDC are being terrorized, even threatened with death if they vote for Tsvangirai. Mugabe said he’ll launch a guerrilla war to keep power if he loses.

I can’t imagine anything good coming out of this, even if Mugabe backs down from the precipice. He’s so riled up his supporters that no matter the outcome, violence appears to be almost certain. Sadly, other nations in the region and across the globe have condemned this electoral situation, but without backing it up with serious consequences. South Africa, a major power and neighbor, did little at the beginning and has yet to step up fully to its responsibilities in the region.

Finally, she’s stepping aside from her main campaign! But, some say she’s ramping up her desire for the VP slot. That’s just not going to happen. The whole thing about change and moving forward means you can’t have anyone on the ticket who represents 1990s thinking. Additionally, as Dick Cheney made the modern vice president position a major force in office, Clinton would make the VP candidate slot more significant than the traditional one debate and sidebar fundraisers. Further, her husband proved uncontrollable during her presidential run; god only knows what he’d do in the general election. Obama has been gracious but he need not offer her a slot that would doom his, and the Democratic party’s, chances to take back the White House and avoid McCain, aka Bush III.

After the polls close in Montana and South Dakota today, the Democratic Party should have its nominee for President. Senator Barack Obama will be the nominee. The only questions remaining, to me, are

• How many superdelegates will come to his side today?
• Will they come before or after the polls close?
• Will he secure the total delegate necessary this evening (2,118)?
• Will Senator Hillary Clinton concede tonight?
• At what point will my Rep. come off the fence and choose a candidate?

In typical fashion, the campaign for Bush 3, aka John McCain, has declared themselves shocked, simply shocked, that the Washington Post did not report the story as it was dictated to its reporter. The reporter, shocking as it may seem, decided to also look at other material surrounding the matter. Lo and behold, it appears the McCain team was trying to pass along its talking points as truth.

The issue concerns McCain’s support or lack of support for blanket immunity for telecommunications firms that spied on Americans under direction from President Bush. McCain and his Republican colleagues wanted to give full past, present and future immunity to the companies for anything they might have done, even though Republicans and telecomm officials said they did nothing wrong that would require them to be immunized in such a manner. Democrats in Congress wanted to find out what the telecomm firms did first, before considering immunity. Sounds like a radical idea, I know, but these are crazy times we live in folks.

The grave sin of the Washington Post reporter, according to Team McBush? Reporting that it seemed that McCain has changed his opinion about whether to support blanket immunity with no preconditions (past) and requiring telecomm firms to explain their actions before immunity is granted (present). The McCain team is apoplectic with rage.

See this Politico piece for some analysis. The original Washington Post article was written by Jonathan Weisman and Ellen Nakashima and published today.

Late at night from the drunk tank to come bail you out after you were busted for DUI? How about your mistress? That seems to be what Republican U.S. Representative Vito Fossella (R-NY 13) did last week. I love that some New York rags are now calling him Vino Fossella. And, he may even have fathered a child with his mistress, leaving his wife at home in New York to raise their three children.

The 13th District leans Democratic (PVI: D+1), but Rep. Fossella was considered likely to be reelected. Republican and Democratic circles in New York are talking about him not running for reelection. He blew a 0.17 on his breathalyzer test, over two times the 0.8 legal limit in Virginia. He may have blown even more than that: his career and his marriage.

Update: I can now remove the “seems” and “may even have” from my original posting. Republican Rep. “Vino” Fossella admits his long affair with the woman who bailed him out jail and admits that he fathered her 3-year-old daughter. No word yet on whether he’ll retire/resign.

I figured I’d best start a new post, since the issue about the race possibly being over is starting to move through the blogosphere.

• Riffing on last item, Clinton in until June 15th? TPM also has some thoughts on what this might mean.
• Clinton says she’s staying in until “there’s a nominee.” Fuzzy language. She’s also using fuzzy math skills in calculating the needed delegates to win the nomination, continuing to include Michigan and Florida delegates in the mix even though they were stripped by the Democratic Rules committee for holding their primaries too early. Hey, Sen. Clinton, maybe you ought to reconsider not throwing your lot in with economists. They might be able to help you with your ciphering!
• Breaking: McGovern urges Clinton to drop out
• Clinton loaned her campaign $6.4 million over the last month. She’s trying to buy the top of the ticket since the voters aren’t giving it to her.
• Clinton announced WV event today, perhaps attempting to quash rumors that campaign is shutting down. The problem is, as many (most?) pundits are saying, is that she’s running out of options and is beginning to look like she’ll burn down the Democratic house in her efforts to win.
• [Political Wire] Clinton to huddle with advisors in DC today.
• Did Clinton supporter and retired Gen. Wes Clark call her to tell her to drop out of the race? Update: TPM is reporting that Wes Clark’s handlers are saying he didn’t do any such thing. Face-saving time anyone?
• Washington Post, AP and the Politico all call Indiana for Clinton with 99% of the precincts reporting. She won by 22,019 votes, a percentage split of 50.88% to Obama’s 49.12%. That’s a very slim margin for a state she expected to win handily.
• MSNBC is reporting that Gary (Indiana) results could tip the race.
• The Hill weighs in with “Clinton is on the ropes”
• The Fix is asking readers for their thoughts on if it’s over after Obama’s strong win in NC and the poor showing of Clinton in Indiana (winning by such a slim margin or maybe losing).
• OMG: Tim Russert reported that Clinton was scheduled to appear on the morning shows tomorrow. But, she canceled all her appearances.

Yep, two more primaries, big ones today. Polls have Obama leading in North Carolina and Clinton leading in Indiana. Though, as in previous contests, the delegate split will be so close as to have almost not mattered. Obama will stay in the lead and Clinton will do whatever she can to mock, berate and cudgel her opponent. The primary season is almost over, thankfully. Remaining contests after today are West Virginia on May 13th, Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th, Puerto Rico on June 1st and Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd. The NY Times has a great page about the primary contests this cycle.

But, focusing on today’s events, let’s start the process. I won’t be live blogging or posting as much today as things are pretty busy on my end and I’m getting tired of this Democratic primary. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: please drop out Sen. Clinton and let Sen. Obama take the Democratic Party back to the White House and change our country and world for the better.

• Clinton in debt trouble again. Possible loan from her private stash.
• Clinton asserts she won in Indiana, though most outlets aren’t calling it yet. The race is tightening there. With 91% of the precincts reporting, Clinton has 51% (588,106) vs. Obama’s 49% (567,149). Senator Clinton, be a good candidate, a good Democrat, and a good citizen. Bow out.
• Blowout in NC: Obama beat Clinton 54% to 42%. With 98% of the precints reporting, Obama won 875,894 votes vs. Clinton’s 649,815.
• Polls are closed in both IN and now NC. Early returns show Clinton ahead in IN. Others speculating strong lead in NC for Obama.
• High turnout today.
• George W. Bush ran as an everyday Joe, who you’d drink a beer with and who got C’s in school. He was proud of his dumbed-down image. Now, we have Sen. Clinton, and her chorus of supporters like Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), saying that economists are stupid and that having experienced people help make policy is stupid. You have to love Clinton, Menendez and McCain for all championing one free tank of gas for Americans for the summer. Yep, that’ll sure help the economy and the bills that real Americans have to pay.
• Read this post to see why Clinton shouldn’t be the Democratic candidate in November. She can’t do math nor can she follow the rules that she once voted for. She was for excluding Florida and Michigan before she was against it. And for those who think my comment is too snide re: attacks on Sen. Kerry in 2004, please take a close look at the Rovian tactics of the Clinton campaign, the racist and snide attacks by the former President Clinton, and the hate attacks from Clintonista James Carville. This country needs a leader not a win-at-any-cost throwback to the last century.
• Indiana’s polls close at 7 pm (Eastern) and North Carolina’s close at 7:30 pm. Just to comment from the peanut gallery, that means that Indiana’s polls close at 6 pm. Not only has the US Supreme Court upheld a discriminatory voter id law in Indiana, the state also conspires against working people and families by closing the polls so early and hosting the event on a work day. We need serious reform in the electoral process in this country, especially by making voting day a state or federal holiday so that everyone who is eligible to vote can actually find the time to make it to the polls.

At 11:51 pm (London time), the election was called for Conservative Party candidate Boris Johnson. Seen as a long-shot, perhaps cardboard stand-in candidate about a year ago, he’s beaten two-term incumbent Labour Mayor Ken Livingstone.

Of the first preference votes (voters submit both 1st and 2nd choices on their ballots to enable easy instant runoff counting if no candidate wins at least 50% of the vote), Livinstone got 893,877 votes, Johnson got 1,043,761, and Lib Dem candidate Brian Paddick picked up 236,685. The rest of the votes were split among seven other candidates. No one achieved 50% so that top two candidates, Johnson and Livingstone, went to the 2nd round instant runoff based on 2nd preference. The final totals are that Boris Johnson got 1,168,738 votes and Ken Livingstone got 1,028,966 votes.

Boris wins and is the next mayor of London.

Best to start another post, esp. since it’s almost May 3rd in London. The mayoral race still drags on, although some of the conservative rags have printed headlines calling it for Tory Boris Johnson over Labour’s Ken Livingstone. More updates below, in reverse order as usual.

• London Assembly results and analysis: Tories 8, Labour: 6.
• According to the BBC: “Livingstone’s campaign manager Tessa Jowell has said she does not think he will win the mayoral race. She told the BBC: ‘I think it’s highly unlikely that Ken will be mayor of London after the end of this evening.’”
• This is quite possibly the best political blog quote I’ve ever read (from 8:11 pm, if you click the link):
  

  Tony Benn is talking about what Labour should do now. As always with Benn, it’s about 75 kilometres to the left of what Labour WILL do now, but that doesn’t matter as, as always when I hear Benn speak, he’s talking socialist political ideas but in this warm toffee voice that sounds like he should be reading bedtime stories about teddy bears stuck up trees.

• BBC now says it might not be until after midnight before the election is called. Boris leads Ken in first choice votes so far. Second choices haven’t been factored in yet, as far as I know.
• Some voting machines crashed and a huge turnout have slowed the counting. Some bloggers at the Guardian say it might be past 11pm London time before an official result is available, possibly even longer.
• All 159 council races have been called. See below for the BBC’s tally.

Elections were held today throughout England and Wales, with a tight race for Mayor in London and local elections across the country. The conservative Tory party claims to have won in London, beating incumbent Labour Party Mayor Ken Livingstone in his quest for a third term. [I was rooting for Livingstone.] Throughout the north of England, where Labor was strong, it appears they may have lost some important races. The Guardian has coverage and I’m sure the international wires will be covering the elections.

Most recent updates on top:

• Likely mayoral results (and London Assembly that oversees mayor) due evening British time (so about 1:30 PM EST).
• No word still on Mayor race, though people speaking in past tense about Ken Livingstone. Labour took a beating in local elections, losing 189 seats while the Tories netted 173 and the Lib Dems 7.
• [Last post of the night for me] From the Guardian: “Labour was tonight desperately hoping a record turnout would save Ken Livingstone from what the Tories were privately predicting was going to prove a clear victory for Boris Johnson in the London mayoral election.”
• With 98 of 159 Councils declared, Conservatives have picked up 6 vs. a loss of 5 by Labour and 1 by the Lib Dems. Overall, the Tories have netted 138 new councillor seats vs a loss of 144 by Labour and a loss of 11 by the Lib Dems.
• Mayoral race still too close to call. The Guardian says “counting is due to begin at breakfast time and could go on until late this evening.”
• With 91 of 159 councils officially called, the Tories have picked up 7 Councils and 124 councillors while Labour has lost 3 Councils and 108 seats. Overall, Labour is coming in third in voting to the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.
• From the BBC: “research suggests [Conservative Party] will take 44% of the vote nationally, with Labour on 24% and the Lib Dems on 25%”
• Labour sources say Livingstone likely to have lost bid for 3rd term
• From the Guardian: “In a dismal performance for Gordon Brown in his first electoral test as prime minister, Labour’s national share of the vote was heading below 25%, the party’s worst performance since records began in 1973.”
• Early BBC results show stasis, i.e. Conservatives and Labour holding some safe seats.
• Opinion polls show Livingstone closing in on Tory mayoral candidate Boris Johnson. Guardian and BBC saying race is too close to call.
• Conservative party backs off on its own website’s claim that it won London mayor race.
• First results should be in around 6:30 pm EST (11:30 pm London time). English council results may be reported tonight, while results in Wales and the London races (Mayor and Assembly) might not be available until tomorrow (Friday).

With 99 percent of the precincts reporting, Hillary Clinton won 55% of the votes while Obama won 45%. Obama still has a significant, some say insurmountable, pledged delegate lead. The superdelegates lead is for Clinton right now, but according to MSNBC, it’s only a lead of 25 with a large group still uncommitted.

When will this end? That’s more of a lament than a question. Clinton can’t win but she’s going to stay in as long as she can claw her way into the pockets of donors and the media. This winner take all, scorched earth approach isn’t benefiting the Democratic party or Americans.

Now we wait for the next big primaries in North Carolina and Indiana on May 6th. Obama has been ahead by about 9 points in North Carolina for the last 90 days. It’s in the margin of error in Indiana.

A new Washington Post / ABC News poll shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 10 points. Interestingly, it notes that voters are content to not prematurely end the primary process. Negative opinions of the New York Senator are growing. She continues to attack Obama from the Right, often seeming more like a conservative Republican rather than a candidate for the top of the Democratic ticket. This poll shows that her negative attacks aren’t having their desired effect in pushing her to the top; but one must know that these attacks will be magnified by the Republican side against Obama if he prevails into the general.

This “win at all costs” approach is definitely Clintonian. Bill Clinton did it to get elected. I was a fan of Clinton’s presidency and was very proud of his work on global health issues after he left the White House. However, he’s fallen far down my list as he’s stumped for his wife’s campaign. He’s dismissed Obama’s meteoric rise and strong polls as luck, only a result of his being African American, or now, because voters are stupid. Yes, I said stupid. The Boston Globe reports today that Bill Clinton told a group of Pennsylvania voters that people who are wise support Hillary Clinton and people that are young are too easily fooled by Barack Obama. Wow, it’s amazing to see him diss an entire voting bloc.

And, I’m sure the Clinton campaign will attack this poll and say that someone (i.e. the Washington Post and ABC News) are out to get her. Everyone’s out to get her except those that aren’t. It’s always someone elses fault that Hillary Clinton hasn’t been crowned. I’m sure the space aliens will be blamed as we get closer to the end of this process.

While it seemed clear that he would have to leave after his meeting with the Colombian ambassador about free trade with that country, Hillary Clinton’s chief strategist Mark Penn’s exit was still surprising. Penn met with the Colombians in order to help support their efforts to get a deal on the trade agreement. After the meeting and the should-have-been-obvious backlash, Penn tried to backpedal and say that he probably shouldn’t have met with the Colombians. This resulted in the Colombian government firing him from their efforts. And, it led to increasing the intensity of the story in the media, which led to his being forced out last night.

He’d weathered previous issues and an intense dislike by many of the inner circle of the campaign staff. He kept his day job as a lobbyist/consultant while working on the campaign, often dealing with clients who seemed to be 180 degrees different than Clinton’s professed position. He garnered huge fees and refused to take big cuts while the campaign hemorrhaged money. He was arrogant and single-minded.

Some are glad to see him gone, primarily those on the campaign. However, are they being disingenuous? To me, Mark Penn was a perfect fit for the Clinton campaign (be it Hillary or Bill). Why? Because he was always about himself, be it money, message, direction or whatnot. He was in the campaign for Mark Penn. Hillary Clinton is in the campaign for herself, damn the party, damn the general election, damn the American citizens. She wants to win at any cost. As the days drag on, that cost goes up. And it’s a cost not worth paying since she can’t win the nomination through the Democratic process. It’s time for her to step aside and heal the rift that Mark Penn and she have created in the Democratic party.

Rep. Al Wynn (D-MD 04), who lost a primary challenge from Donna Edwards back in February, will resign his seat in order to take up a position at DC law firm Dickstein Shapiro this June. Prior to Edwards first primary challenge in 2006, Wynn was a relatively conservative Democrat from the Prince Georges and Montgomery County district. He was pro-big business, seemed to support the Iraq War and supported bankruptcy changes that prioritized banks over people. After that scare, where Edwards came with a few points of toppling Wynn, he tacked pretty far to the left. It wasn’t enough, or people wanted change, and Donna Edwards won resoundingly.

Made a lame duck in this predominately Democratic district, there was speculation of what Wynn would do after the end of his term in Congress. However, I don’t think anyone expected him to bail with so much time still left in his term. This reflects badly on Wynn, in my opinion. I’d rank this up there with Republicans who’ve left before their terms were up, such as Dennis Hastert (IL-14) and Trent Lott (MS), as well as Democrat Marty Meehan (MA-05).